Synoptic Bio — Lung Cancer LDT Revenue Model

Model Assumptions

Budget Scenario

$11.03M total

Revenue Scenario

$81.4M / 5yr

Capital Raised

$9M$14.5M$20M

$12.0M

Partner Channel Addressable Pool

500K1M1.5M

750K customers

Phase 1 Price (Olink)

$249$399$599

$399 / test

Phase 2 Price (Nomic/DPS)

$149$299$499

$299 / test

Revenue Start Year

Commercial launch Year 2

Assay Cost / Test (Phase 1)

$100$200$300

$150 / test

Phase 2 (Nomic) scales proportionally

Post-24-Mo Monthly Burn

$200K$550K$900K

$450K / mo

Ongoing team + commercial ops after R&D phase

Scenario Overlays

Future Raise

Off — modeling current raise only

Off

Raise Timing

Mo 6Mo 27Mo 48

Month 18

Raise Amount

$5M$27.5M$50M

$15M

Injected into cash balance at raise month

Payer Reimbursement

Off — self-pay only

Off

Coverage Approval Year

Reimbursement Rate / Test

$200$400$600

$350 / test

Annual Reimbursed Volume

5K75K150K

40,000 tests / yr

Physician-referred insured patients — no CAC or Lemonaid costs

Total Budget (24-mo)

$11.4M

Mid scenario

5-Year Revenue

$81.4M

Self-pay only

5-Year Gross Profit

$30.5M

37.5% blended margin

Cash Runway

42 mo

From $12M raised

Break-Even Month

Mo 28

Revenue covers ongoing costs

Capital Gap / Surplus

+$0.6M

vs. mid budget scenario

Cash Runway & Projections

Cash Position Over Time

Monthly cash balance = capital raised − cumulative budget burn + cumulative gross profit

Revenue & P&L Projections

Annual Revenue & Gross Profit

5-year self-pay projection (payer reimbursement not modeled)

Volume & Unit Economics

Annual test volume with gross margin % overlay

Cost Structure per Test

Variable cost breakdown by component

Cumulative Gross Profit

Running total vs. total budget spend

Revenue Mix by Source

Partner channel vs. independent acquisition

Budget Breakdown (24-Month)

Budget by Category

Low / High range with midpoint allocation

Spend Detail

Line-item breakdown with low–high ranges

Category	Low	High	Range

Scenario Comparison

Key Milestones

Model Assumptions & Caveats

All revenue projections are self-pay only. Payer reimbursement (Year 4+) would significantly increase volume but is not modeled.
Partner channel addressable pool (~750K) represents health-engaged consumers reachable through a wholesale distribution partnership (e.g., Function Health or equivalent).
Conversion rates have no direct precedent — independent acquisition volume and CAC are placeholders pending go-to-market strategy finalization.
COGS trajectory assumes successful Olink volume negotiations and Nomic platform validation by end of Year 3.
Budget assumes Synoptic Bio is independently funded; no in-kind infrastructure assumed from any distribution partner.
Post-24-month ongoing operational costs modeled at ~$250K/month. Actual costs will depend on team size and commercialization pace.