Synoptic Bio — Revenue Model

Model Assumptions

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Scenario

Apply a sensitivity preset across all products. Edits afterward stay sticky until you re-apply a preset.

5-Year Synoptic Revenue

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All streams (this product)

5-Year Synoptic GP

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Cumulative gross profit

Blended GM%

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5-yr cumulative

5-Year Tests

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All streams (this product)

Stream 1 — 23andMe

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5-yr Synoptic revenue

Stream 2 — Other WS

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5-yr Synoptic revenue

Stream 3 — Direct

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5-yr Synoptic revenue

Assay COGS / Test

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Per product

Non-dilutive

Grant & Philanthropic Funding (NIH, ARPA-H, foundations)

Annual non-dilutive funding. Treated as 100% margin (no associated COGS) and rolled into All-Products totals. Useful runway extender; signals scientific credibility.

Grant Revenue Recognized per Year ($)

Realistic seed-stage timing: nothing in Y1–Y2 (proposals being written / under review), first SBIR Phase I or foundation grant lands Y3 (~$750K), Phase II / follow-on awards Y4–Y5. Cumulative ~$3.75M over the horizon.

All Products — 5-Year Synoptic Revenue

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SYN-WAVE + SYN-DROME + SYN-PACT combined

All Products — 5-Year GP

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Combined gross profit

All Products — Blended GM%

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Combined

All Products — 5-Year Tests

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All streams, all products

Shared in this product

Assay COGS / Test — by year, applies to every stream of —

Same biological test across this product's three streams. Per-year curve reflects volume pricing improvements at scale (e.g., Nomic reagent tiers + Broad CLIA processing). Each product has its own curve.

Assay COGS / Test (per year)

Default curve assumes flat through Y3, then volume-tier reductions Y4–Y5. Edit each cell directly.

Per product

Retention / Re-test Rate — —

% of the prior-year active customer base who re-test this year. Volume inputs below are NEW customers per year; re-tests are layered on top automatically.

Annual Re-test Rate

0%50%100%

50%

SYN-WAVE default 50% (annual wellness re-test). SYN-DROME default 25% (less frequent — disease prediction).

5-Year Projections

Synoptic Revenue by Stream

Annual revenue stacked across the three streams

Test Volume by Stream

Annual tests delivered, each stream

Synoptic Gross Margin %

Per stream + blended over 5 years

Detailed Annual Projections

Metric	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Cumulative

Model Assumptions & Caveats

Two products: SYN-WAVE (organ aging & exposome) and SYN-DROME (disease prediction). Each product has independent assumptions and its own three-stream model. Switch tabs above.
Three streams per product: Stream 1 wholesale to 23andMe, Stream 2 wholesale to other partners, Stream 3 Synoptic direct-to-consumer. Volumes and channel costs are independent per stream.
Wholesale streams: Synoptic earns wholesale per test. Partner pays collection, shipping, and CAC.
Direct stream: Synoptic owns the consumer relationship and absorbs every cost — assay COGS plus collection, shipping, and CAC. Synoptic earns the full retail price.
SYN-DROME subscriber pricing: Existing SYN-WAVE subscribers get a discounted SYN-DROME price ($299 vs. $499 full). Each stream sets the % of SYN-DROME volume that comes via this bundle.
Assay COGS is shared across streams within a product but separate across products (different reagents/panel design).
Does not include fixed costs (headcount, regulatory, clinical development, IT infrastructure).