Market Opportunity · TAM / SAM / SOM

A ~$115M annual revenue opportunity at year 3–5, derived from per-test fee assumptions across clinical LDTs, DTC licensing, and donor-funded global health screening.

Synoptic builds low-cost proteomic tests, owns each validated test and its evidence, and earns a fee each time a test is run. One test menu reaches three kinds of buyers: clinical labs that run it as a reimbursed laboratory-developed test (Broad Clinical Laboratories is the intended CAP/CLIA lab, in discussions); consumer and longevity platform partners who license it; and donor-funded global health screening programs in LMICs. The three tiers are sized separately against their genuinely-addressable protein-testing subsets. Global health is included in every tier, not treated as a separate add-on.

The Opportunity, Nested

Illustrative; rings not drawn to area-scale

How the Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM) Is Built — Three Channels, Summed

Clinical

Protein diagnostics

$5–10B

Protein-based clinical testing, not all molecular Dx · Market.us / MRF

Consumer

DTC longevity & wellness slice

$1.0–1.3B

Biological-age testing (6–20% CAGR by source); cross-checked vs Function Health

Global Health

Donor screening diagnostics

~$0.5B

Diagnostics-only donor procurement, not total Global Fund spend

SAM

~$7–12B

Each denominator is the addressable subset, not the broad pool. Clinical is protein diagnostics (not the $19B+ mostly-nucleic-acid molecular-Dx market); global health is diagnostics-only donor procurement (not total Global Fund spend on drugs and nets); DTC is the biological-age slice, cross-checked against real company traction. Global health is summed into SAM as a named channel and also sits inside the IVD TAM.

Inside SAM — Own the Test, Earn Per Test, in Each Channel

Clinical

Protein diagnostics

$5.2B → $8.9B

Clinical proteomics ~$10–22B (MRF) · 5.5% CAGR · Market.us, 2025

The protein-based slice of clinical testing — the part Synoptic's tests actually address — distinct from the larger PCR/NGS molecular-diagnostics market. Physician-ordered multi-disease risk stratification panels, reimbursed or cash-pay via a CAP/CLIA lab.

Synoptic's Role

Reimbursed or cash-pay protein LDTs, modeled on the contract-assay (Octave MSDA) structure: Synoptic owns the test, revenue accrues per test. Broad Clinical Laboratories is the intended CAP/CLIA lab (in discussions). Modeled at a $50 fee to Synoptic per test; the patient or payer price is higher and set by the partner. Reimbursement assumes successful payer coverage, following the Octave MSDA precedent.

Clinical range: protein diagnostics $5.2B→$8.9B (Market.us) to clinical proteomics $10B→$22B (Market Research Future). $5.2B→$8.9B is the more conservative and directly relevant comparator for Synoptic's clinical LDT channel. The broader $19B+ molecular-Dx market is mostly nucleic-acid testing and is deliberately not used.

Consumer · Partner Channel

DTC longevity & wellness licensing

$1.0–1.3B

Biological-age slice · 6–20% CAGR by source · GVR / Research Intelo

A well-capitalised category: Function Health reached a $2.5B valuation (Series B led by Redpoint Ventures, a16z participating) at ~$100M revenue run-rate with 50M+ lab tests processed. Superpower and Lifeforce alongside. Estimates range from ~$1.0B at ~6% CAGR (Grand View Research) to $1.3B at 20% (Research Intelo).

Synoptic's Role

License validated wellness and longevity LDTs to these platforms and clinics. Synoptic owns the IP and earns per test; the partner owns the customer relationship and handles consumer-facing operations. Synoptic is not itself a DTC company in this channel. Modeled at a $50 fee to Synoptic per test, not the consumer price.

The higher-growth case ($1.3B at 20% CAGR) is plausible for low-cost proteomic panels licensed into fast-scaling platforms. Bottom-up cross-check: Function Health's traction alone anchors the lower bound of this estimate.

Global Health · LMICs

Donor screening diagnostics

~$0.5B

Diagnostics-only procurement · HIV Dx alone ~$3.3B globally · ResearchAndMarkets, 2025

The diagnostics-only slice of donor and government screening in low- and middle-income countries — a distinct buyer, price, and procurement path. HIV diagnostics alone is ~$3.25B globally (2025), much of it donor-funded. Multi-disease proteomic screening at low per-test cost addresses a structural gap in LMIC disease burden.

Synoptic's Role

Supply low-cost screening tests via WHO Prequalification → Global Fund pooled procurement / PEPFAR → UNDP, anchored by Gates, CHAI, and Wellcome. A novel multi-disease proteomic test must first clear WHO Prequalification and the Expert Review Panel for Diagnostics; end-to-end prequalification typically takes 18–36 months, so this channel is modeled in the year 3–5 SOM. The low per-test cost clears WHO-CHOICE thresholds. Modeled at a $20 fee to Synoptic per test.

~$0.5B is the conservative diagnostics-only addressable procurement. Not the $1.02B total Global Fund figure (which includes drugs, nets, and programme costs). Government NCD screening programs (e.g. India's NPCDCS, ~60M adults) represent additional upside beyond donor-funded channels.

Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) — Bottom-Up

Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) · Bottom-Up

A conservative ~$115M, built from per-test economics

Serviceable obtainable market modeled from realistic year 3–5 test volumes and the fee Synoptic earns each time a test runs — not the price charged to patients or payers: $50 in the high-income channels and $20 in global health, where the test is cheaper and procured at scale.

Channel	Tests / Year	Fee to Synoptic / Test	Revenue
Clinical LDTs high-income, reimbursed	0.6M	$50	$30M
DTC licensing high-income, wellness platforms	1.0M	$50	$50M
Global health screening donor / government, LMICs	1.75M	$20	$35M
Serviceable obtainable market blended ~$34/test	~3.35M		~$115M

Per-Test Economics

Synoptic captures $50/test in high-income clinical and DTC licensing channels and $20/test in global health. Blended realized rate ≈ $34/test. These are fees to Synoptic per test, not the price charged to patients or payers.

Volume & Ramp

~3.35M tests/yr by year 3–5: a conservative ramp as licensed DTC partners, hospital LDTs, and first WHO-prequalified screening programs come online. Global health is the largest volume but lowest per-test revenue line.

Capture vs SAM

~$115M SOM is roughly 1–2% of the ~$7–12B SAM, a credible single-digit-percent obtainable share. Upside to ~$150M+ with faster global-health volume or higher clinical mix.

All SOM figures are illustrative and assumption-driven, shown so a reader can substitute their own volumes and rates. They do not constitute a forecast. Per-test fee of $50 (high-income) / $20 (global health) is a working assumption for this model. SOM is bottom-up and illustrative; SAM and TAM are cited market figures.

Evidence & Citation Index

Sources

TAM · Global IVD (consensus)

$83.3B (2024) → $115.7B (2030), 5.6% CAGR; figures rounded to ~$116B in headlines. ResearchAndMarkets, 2025 ↗. Corroborated across the consensus range: DeciBio ~$109B and Grand View Research ($106.3B 2025 → $128.2B 2033). MarketsandMarkets' $157.6B by 2030 is the high-end outlier and is not used.

SAM · Protein diagnostics (clinical)

Protein-based clinical diagnostics $5.2B (2024) → $8.9B (2034), 5.5% CAGR (Market.us, 2025 ↗); clinical proteomics ~$10B → $22B (Market Research Future). $5.2B → $8.9B is the more conservative and directly relevant comparator for Synoptic's clinical LDT channel. The broad molecular-Dx market ($19B+) is mostly nucleic-acid testing and is deliberately not used.

SAM · DTC longevity & wellness

Estimates span ~$1.0B at ~6% CAGR (Grand View Research longevity diagnostics) to $1.28B → $6.89B at 20.3% CAGR (Research Intelo, 2026). Cross-checked bottom-up against named-company traction: Function Health reached a $2.5B valuation on a $298M Series B led by Redpoint Ventures (a16z participating), Nov 2025, at a ~$100M revenue run-rate, 50M+ lab tests processed (Sacra; TechCrunch).

SAM · Donor screening diagnostics

Diagnostics-only addressable procurement, ~$0.5B conservative. HIV diagnostics alone ~$3.25B (2025) → $5.31B (2030) (ResearchAndMarkets, 2025 ↗), much of it donor-funded. Mechanisms: WHO Prequalification; Global Fund pooled procurement / PEPFAR; UNDP. Not the $1.02B total Global Fund procurement (mostly drugs and nets). WHO's target review for a full IVD assessment is ~270 days; end-to-end prequalification of a novel IVD typically runs ~18–36 months.

Scientific Basis (peer-reviewed, via PubMed)

Sparse plasma-protein signatures (5–20 proteins) improved 10-year risk prediction over basic clinical information for 67 of 218 diseases in 41,931 UK Biobank participants. Carrasco-Zanini et al., Nature Medicine, 2024. doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03142-z ↗

A proteomic aging clock predicted all-cause mortality and the incidence of 18 major age-related diseases, validated across UK, China and Finland cohorts. Argentieri et al., Nature Medicine, 2024. doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03164-7 ↗

Population Deployment & Demand

The NHS-Galleri trial (~142,250 randomized) read out at ASCO 2026: it did not meet its primary endpoint (no significant reduction in combined Stage III/IV cancers), but showed a ~14% reduction in Stage IV diagnoses, a 19% increase in cancers diagnosed at stages I, II, or III, and a 4-fold higher screen-detected rate — demonstrating multi-cancer screening is feasible at national scale and can shift stage at diagnosis. CMS opened an MCED coverage review in 2024; government NCD screening runs at scale (e.g. India's NPCDCS, ~60M adults).

Lab Partner

Broad Clinical Laboratories is the intended CAP/CLIA lab partner (in discussions, not yet contracted). Synoptic owns the tests and earns per test; lab operations are not Synoptic revenue. The model follows the contract-assay (Octave MSDA) structure.

SOM Model Assumptions

Illustrative: ~3.35M tests/yr by year 3–5; Synoptic per-test fee (revenue to Synoptic per test, not the patient price): $50 (high-income clinical + DTC) and $20 (global health); blended ~$34/test → ~$115M, roughly 1–2% of SAM. Not a forecast. Each market is scoped to the addressable subset Synoptic serves.